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Multiple Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting using Deep Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Yield curves are used for a wide variety of tasks in actuarial science and finance for deriving the present value of future cashflows within valuations that apply a market consistent approach. A market consistent approach is required by modern solvency regulations, such as Solvency II, while recently updated accounting standards, such as the recently introduced IFRS 17, require the use of credit and liquidity adjusted yield curves for discounting liabilities, including both life and non-life insurance liabilities. Insurers, and other entities, that report on their liabilities on a discounted basis are exposed to the risk of changes in the interest rates in their markets, which translate directly into changes in the solvency of these entities. Therefore, managing this risk of adverse changes in yield curves - which we refer to as interest rate risk in what follows - is an important task within actuarial work, which is usually considered in the context of corresponding changes in the asset portfolio backing these liabilities, changes in the value of which may act as an offset. This process is, therefore, usually referred to as Asset-Liability Management (ALM).